Executive Summary

Q1 2025 revenue beat while GAAP EPS missed due to a large negative MSR valuation; revenue was $613.4M vs $558.8M S&P Global consensus (+9.8%), but GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.12 as MSR FV fell $388.6M; S&P “Primary EPS” printed $0.024 vs $0.045 consensus (miss) . Revenue/EPS estimates from S&P Global*.
Origination volume was $32.4B (+17% y/y), with purchase at $21.7B and refinance nearly doubling y/y to $10.6B; gain-on-sale margin was 94 bps (vs 105 bps in Q4) .
Guidance: Q2 2025 production $38–$45B and gain margin 90–115 bps; CEO expects to “eclipse $40B” given purchase strength and tech rollouts; dividend maintained at $0.10 per share .
Strategic catalysts: in-house servicing (ICE MSP) targeting material cost savings and better recapture; expanding AI stack (Google Cloud Gemini) with tangible throughput gains; these underpin volume scalability and potential medium-term margin durability .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Revenue beat: $613.4M exceeded S&P Global consensus $558.8M (helped by servicing and interest income; LPIs at $304.8M, servicing income $190.5M, interest income $118.1M) . Revenue estimates from S&P Global*.
Execution on volume and refi capture: $32.4B total (+17% y/y), with ~$10.6B refi (nearly 2x y/y) after a brief late-Feb/early-Mar rate dip, showing operating leverage in demand windows .
Operational KPIs: submission-to-CTC cut to 12.7 days (from 13.9), NPS 87.3%—both best-in-class vs peers running 40–45 days, supporting share gains and repeat business .

What Went Wrong

Profitability: GAAP net loss of $247.0M driven by a $(388.6)M MSR fair value decline; Adjusted EBITDA fell to $57.8M as gain margin slipped to 94 bps (from 105 bps) and expenses remained elevated for growth investments .
Underperformance vs EBITDA consensus: S&P Global EBITDA consensus $167.4M vs actual Adjusted EBITDA $57.8M (approx. -66%); definitional differences may exist, but margin compression and higher costs weighed on results . Estimate from S&P Global*.
Equity and leverage optics: total equity fell to $1.64B (from $2.05B in Q4) and non-funding debt/equity rose to 1.93x (from 1.66x), partly reflecting MSR FV movements; analysts probed leverage, which management downplayed as not central to the thesis .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)	585.5	720.6	613.4
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($M)	180.5	40.6	(247.0)
Diluted EPS ($)	0.09	0.02	(0.12)
Total Gain Margin (bps)	108	105	94
Originations ($B)	27.6	38.7	32.4
Purchase Originations ($B)	22.1	21.9	21.7
Refinance Originations ($B)	5.5	16.8	10.6
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	101.5	118.2	57.8

Actual vs Consensus (Q1 2025)

Metric	Actual	Consensus*	Surprise*
Revenue ($M)	613.4	558.8*	+54.6 (+9.8%)*
Primary EPS ($) (S&P basis)	0.0238*	0.0453*	(0.0215) (≈ -47.4%)*
EBITDA ($M)	57.8	167.4*	(109.6) (≈ -65.5%)*

Note: S&P “Primary EPS” may differ from GAAP diluted EPS presentation for UWMC; EBITDA definitions may also differ from company “Adjusted EBITDA.” Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Product Mix – Unpaid Principal Balance of Originations ($B)

Category	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Purchase – Conventional	12.16	13.84	13.18
Purchase – Government	7.57	6.07	6.67
Purchase – Jumbo/Other	2.39	1.94	1.89
Total Purchase	22.12	21.85	21.75
Refi – Conventional	1.72	8.90	4.34
Refi – Government	2.66	6.42	4.70
Refi – Jumbo/Other	1.14	1.50	1.57
Total Refinance	5.51	16.81	10.60
Total Originations	27.63	38.66	32.35

KPIs and Balance Sheet Snapshots

KPI	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Gain Margin (bps)	108	105	94
Submission-to-CTC (days)	13.9	—	12.7
Net Promoter Score (%)	—	—	87.3
Available Liquidity ($B)	—	—	~2.4
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	605.6	507.3	485.0
MSR UPB ($B)	229.7	242.4	214.6
MSR WAC (%)	4.58	4.76	5.44
Total Equity ($B)	2.46	2.05	1.64
Non-funding Debt/Equity (x)	0.94	1.66	1.93

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Production ($B)	Q2 2025	—	38–45	New
Gain Margin (bps)	Q2 2025	—	90–115	New
Production ($B)	Q1 2025	28–35	—	—
Gain Margin (bps)	Q1 2025	90–115	—	—
Dividend per share ($)	Payable 4/10/25	0.10	—	—
Dividend per share ($)	Payable 7/10/25	—	0.10	Maintained

CEO also guided qualitatively to “eclipse $40B” production in Q2 within the $38–$45B range .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
AI/Technology	Q3: KEEP (AI-driven refi targeting); BrokerX; strong tech posture . Q4: ChatUWM enhancements; capacity to double volume without adding fixed costs .	Google Cloud partnership (Gemini) with underwriter throughput from 6 to 14 loans/day; CEO: “best technology you’ve ever seen” rolling out; KPI improvements (12.7 days CTC) .	Increasing emphasis
Servicing Strategy	No in-house servicing cited in prior two quarters.	Announced in-house servicing with ICE MSP; aim to be “most efficient servicer” with potential $40–$100M annual cost savings and better recapture/experience .	New pivot/acceleration
Broker Channel Share	Channel dominance, record purchase positioning .	Broker share up from ~19.7% (2022) to ~28% (highest since 2008), supporting volume gains .	Rising
Margin Strategy	Q3 118 bps, Q4 105 bps with guidance discipline .	Q1 at 94 bps; Q2 guide 90–115 bps; CEO says trend higher over time while prioritizing share .	Mixed near-term; stable guide
Macro/Rates & Refi Windows	Q3 saw brief rate dip boost; record purchase focus .	Late Feb/early Mar rate dip doubled daily production; scalable ops to flex with rates .	Ongoing volatility; agile response
Capital/Float/Leverage	—	10b5 program to increase float; management “comfortable” with ratios; dismisses leverage focus as non-core .	New focus on float/liquidity optics
Regulatory/GSE	—	Minimal concern on potential GSE reforms; confidence in agency leadership and UWM agility .	Monitor

Management Commentary

“The first quarter marked another win for UWM… we swiftly capitalized on the refinance opportunity—all while maintaining our best-in-class performance in the purchase market.” — Mat Ishbia, CEO .
“By leveraging the latest technology in AI, our plan is to be the most efficient servicer in America… cost savings … between $40 million and $100 million a year.” — Mat Ishbia (on in-house servicing) .
“We closed $32.4 billion in production… almost double our refi volume year-over-year… gain margin was 94 bps… [net loss] inclusive of a $388 million reduction in fair value of our MSR portfolio.” — Mat Ishbia .
“We expect our second quarter production to be between $38 [and] $45 billion… I expect us to do over $40 billion… gain margin… between 90 and 115 [bps].” — Mat Ishbia .
“We continue to invest in… operations, underwriting and technology teams… we believe [we] can handle twice our 2024 origination volume with minimal impact to our fixed costs.” — Rami Hasani, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Servicing in-house: Expect to begin onboarding loans early next year and complete by year-end; benefits include cost savings, improved borrower experience, and better broker recapture; no material one-time expenses expected .
Products/ARMs: ARMs likely a small share; purchase market supported by temporary buydowns; ARM uptake hinges on rates; not expected to be a meaningful mix driver near term .
MSR strategy: Will be opportunistic; in-house servicing tilts toward retaining more when economics warrant but will sell at attractive multiples .
Q2 outlook: CEO aims to exceed $40B production driven by purchase strength and tech rollouts; if rates fall further, capacity to scale much higher .
Capital strategy/M&A: Build vs. buy—focus on organic tech with ~2,000 engineers; open to opportunistic deals but no reliance on M&A; 10b5 plan to increase float over time .
Leverage: Management comfortable with current ratios; emphasizes growth, tech leadership, and market share over leverage optics .

Estimates Context

Revenue beat: $613.4M vs $558.8M S&P Global consensus (+9.8%)* .
EPS miss on S&P “Primary EPS” basis: $0.0238 vs $0.0453 consensus (≈ -47%)*; GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.12 due to $(388.6)M MSR FV decline .
EBITDA miss: Adjusted EBITDA $57.8M vs S&P Global EBITDA consensus $167.4M (≈ -66%)*; note definitional differences between S&P EBITDA and company “Adjusted EBITDA” .
Implication: Street models likely need lower margin/EBITDA assumptions near-term given 94 bps gain-on-sale and investment spend, partly offset by stronger revenue/volume. Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term setup constructive: Q2 production guide ($38–$45B) and CEO’s bias to >$40B are potential upside catalysts if purchase strength/tech adoption sustain .
Quality-of-revenue vs GAAP noise: MSR valuation drove GAAP loss; core production/servicing/interest revenue held up, reinforcing the narrative to focus on operating metrics and margin trajectory .
Margin watch: 90–115 bps guide indicates continued pricing discipline; monitor mix (purchase vs refi) and competitive dynamics for signs of margin stabilization or improvement .
Structural efficiency: AI investments (Google Cloud) and workflow automation are shortening cycle times and could expand capacity without proportionate fixed cost growth—supports operating leverage in a rate-down scenario .
Strategic pivot to servicing: ICE MSP partnership and in-house servicing should enhance recapture, borrower experience, and medium-term cost structure; watch onboarding milestones and run-rate savings realization .
Capital/float optics: 10b5 selling program to increase float may broaden ownership and liquidity; dividend sustained at $0.10 supports income holders amid transformation .
Model sensitives: For 2025, prioritize volume path (Q2 guide), gain-on-sale bandwidth, expense trajectory, and MSR valuation sensitivity to rates; consider scenario cases for rate dips that unlock refi capacity .

Footnote: Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary